The Video Streaming war is heating up. There will be casualties. Some combatants will get wounded and others will be killed off. It’s simple math – There is just not enough good video content to go around and not enough ‘eyeballs’ (hours in the day) to watch all of this content.

In this article that I originally posted in 2017 I played ‘Las Vegas’ bookie and soothsayer alike and gave odds on who will be the eventual big winner(s). It’s time for an update

To be one of the survivors good strategic planning and execution will be needed. The right weapons will need to be deployed (deep deep pockets will be one of the factors). Who amongst the competition has the right arsenal? Who can Leverage their assets and resources to the max? Who has HyperLeverage they can exploit to win the video streaming war?

With Apple’s dive into the into original content battlefield, Facebook’s expanding video footprint,  A new and improved YouTubeTV and of course Disney TV gaining momentum the pool has gotten quite crowded. Someone is going under. Something has to give.

GIVING BETTING ODDS TO THE PLAYERS

In classic Las Vegas fashion I’m going to provide the odds of long term (5 year) success of each of the major players in the game.

Netflix – Odds of long term success 1:1

On the Plus side – World wide distribution, Brand name recognition, Already spending heavily on original content creation. And the existing business model generates cash. (always a good thing).

On the Minus side – No streaming TV deals, Lost exclusive Disney content, Pressure to continue existing growth rates, No Ad Revenue (yet), Cost and ability to procure exclusive distribution deals is getting more challenging.

Keys to 5 year Success – Create better movie and TV deals. Acquire a competitor or other content and smaller distribution providers, partner with social media – Snapchat/Twitter. It also must continue to create “must see” blockbuster series like Stranger Things.

 Amazon Prime – Odds of success 1:1

On the Plus side -Amazon “owns” the internet more than any other player in the game, Already investing in original content it can parlay it’s brand recognition, one-stop shopping and ubiquity to it’s advantage. It’s Amazon Prime is not just a video subscription, but so much more. Partnerships with premium content channels – HBO, Showtime add additional reasons to choose Amazon.

On the Minus side – No regular TV or cable TV channel connections. Everyone hates a monopoly.

Keys to 5 year Success – Improve and integrate app with rest of Amazon shopping, Interactive viewing experience (Including AR or VR), Live stream TV/Sports, Buy a competitor or content provider (e.g, FX, AMC)

Disney – Odds of Success 1:1

Disney was caught between a rock and a hard place. As the premier address for children’s and family entertainment it had limited control over the streaming distribution of its content. That was then. This is now. First they completed the purchase of Hulu. Then they HyperLeveraged their vault of childrens’ and family entertainment that provides them content for years to come. Finally, they elbowed out all the other players by limiting and restricting the distribution of Disney  content to their channel.

Disney has deep pockets to muscle itself in the high rollers table. It is highly likely they will acquire others to stay at the top of the game. Look out Netflix, Showtime and even HBO. Even though they are owned by competitors, there is on so much viewing that can go on.

Google (YoutubeTV) – Odds of success – 1:1

Google has finally jumped headfirst into the game. It played on the fringes and  ‘drafting’ off the worldwide success of YouTube. It can afford to bide it’s time and let others eat each other alive. Then swoop in and buy the carcasses of the losers. It also does not have to wait until this happens and can just buy it’s way in whenever it chooses. With it’s huge advantage in search and paid advertising. It’s a natural for Google to augment it’s YouTube franchise with better quality streaming content.

The question is what Google really wants to do with YouTube. It has seen Facebook take a major bite out of the video market space. Will YouTube TV be able to play in the ‘premium’ content game or continued to be looked upon as a place for ‘cute kitten’ videos. With an audience that has come to expect higher and higher production values, it looks like they are going to have to get serious about original content. One big acquisition though can change the paradigm. Watch out HBO, Showtime and even Netflix???

Facebook – Odds of Success 4:1

Facebook is to social media what Amazon is to online commerce and Apple is to Mobile. They are the ones that move the dial. With video being the dominate source of interactivity on Facebook (and Instagram) – it’s only natural that streaming video would be a next move. With over 2 Billion users worldwide the Facebook Live initiative has a built in audience.

And similar to it’s counterparts, Facebook, even though it is late to the game, can easily cross the chasm on the backs of Netflix, Hulu and others by simply writing a check and folding one or more of them into it’s platform.

Facebook has planted the seeds wisely. First developing a relationship with Nielson, then courting advertisers to switch allegiance away from mainstream TV while expanding its social media tentacles even further down the demographic food chain (through Instagram). Streaming video is a natural progression for them. Look for strategic acquisitions, especially for original content and even a major entertainment provider like CBS or NBC.

Apple – Odds of Success 4:1

Apple has a cash war chest like none other. (upward of $250B). It has the financial muscle to buy it’s way into this space even though it goes against it’s DNA to do this. Apple appears set on developing it’s own original quality content. The problem is that the quality expectations are high. Anything that is less than top notch will diminish the brand.

Unlike all the other players in this game – Apple controls it’s video ecosystem. And it knows distribution (just look at what it did with iTunes). Between tablets, smart phones wireless headphones and VR devices, Apple has a built in audience of hundreds of millions (billions worldwide). And Apple has shown that it can outlast it’s competition.

Will a key to success be to purchase an existing distribution channel (ABC/CBS/HBO . One thing for sure – when Apple decides to jump into a market – they are in it to win it. Look for Apple-Amazon-Google wars to heat up.

HBO – Odds of success 7:1

HBO (owned by Time Warner) has the panache of being the standard bearer for quality video content. It’s accomplished this while creating it’s own direct distribution channel in addition to it’s primary distribution relationship with others. Being part of the Time Warner empire, it has the support to weather the coming battles. But is it enough? HBO thrives on having ‘hits’ that keep people on the hook. They will need another one or two ‘Mega Hits’ after Game of Thrones to maintain the brand and stave off competition.  Succession looks like it will fit the bill. But this is a hard course to maintain in the choppy and turbulent seas of the video steaming wars. Entirely possible that it will be sold to one of the other players in the game. It’s the Golden Fruit that everyone wants to emulate (or own)

SHOWTIME – Odds of success 12:1

Owned by CBS it is the their address for premium TV and movie entertainment. Still perceived as one step behind HBO, it is still dependent on others distribution channels. Being part of the CBS empire, it has the support to weather the coming battles and perhaps absorb another competitor now that Disney controls HULU. Conversely it could be sold off to Netflix, Disney or even Amazon. Showtime will need to churn out premium content and create ‘Mega Hits’ to maintain the brand and stave off competition. Entirely possible that it will be sold to one of the other players in the game. If HBO is not available for acquisition, SHOWTIME would be a nice catch as well.

STARZ – Odds of success 15:1

Starz, which is owned by Lionsgate, will need to expand beyond being just a distribution hub for content by offering original content, create live TV and or sports events. Even though it is not in the same league as other premium networks, it still has a value and a high probability of being acquired. The probability of it being independent of the major streaming companies in five years time is small.

In conclusion – based on my crystal ball into the future five years hence – I see the big Three in the streaming entertainment video world to be  Netflix, Amazon and Disney.  Google, Apple and others will certainly still be around, but won’t be the dominant forces in this crowded space.